Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity
[1] Climate sensitivity has been subjectively estimated to be likely to lie in the range of 1.5–4.5 C, and this uncertainty contributes a substantial part of the total uncertainty in climate change projections over the coming century. Objective observationally-based estimates have so far failed to improve on this upper bound, with many estimates even suggesting a significant probability of clim...
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A probability distribution for values of the effective climate sensitivity, with a lower bound of 1.6 K (5th percentile), is obtained on the basis of the increase in ocean heat content in recent decades from analyses of observed interior-ocean temperature changes, surface temperature changes measured since 1860, and estimates of anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing of the climate system....
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Henriksson et al. (2010), hereafter HALTL10, criticize Annan and Hargreaves (2006a) (AH06) primarily on the grounds that we assumed that different sources of data were conditionally independent given the climate sensitivity. While we consider this approximation to have been a reasonable one under the circumstances (and provided arguments to justify this approach), we also acknowledged its impor...
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Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Climate of the Past (CP). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in CP if available. Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc Abstract Climate sensitivity is a crucial parameter in global temperature...
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[1] A persistent feature of empirical climate sensitivity estimates is their heavy tailed probability distribution indicating a sizeable probability of high sensitivities. Previous studies make general claims that this upper heavy tail is an unavoidable feature of (i) the Earth system, or of (ii) limitations in our observational capabilities. Here we show that reducing the uncertainty about (i)...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geophysical Research Letters
سال: 2006
ISSN: 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2005gl025259